Population-Clinical Simulation Model of Osteoarthritis: Development and Applications

Project number: 
Approval date: 
Wednesday, November 24, 2004
Principal Investigator: 
Arthritis Research Centre of Canada
Funding Agency: 
Canadian Institutes of Health Research(CIHR),Canadian Institutes of Health Research(CIHR),Canadian I
Datasets requested: 
Canadian Community Health Survey (CCHS)
WorkSafe BC Claims Files and Firm Level Data
Deaths (BC Vital Statistics Agency)
Consolidation registry (Ministry of Health)
Mental Health (BC Ministry of Health)
PharmaCare (BC Ministry of Health)
Medical Services Plan (BC Ministry of Health)
consolidation - census geocodes
Home and Community Care (BC Ministry of Health)
Hospital Separations (BC Ministry of Health)
Consolidation - demographic (Ministry of Health)
Research objective: 

1) What will be the burden of OA in BC, in terms of frequency, impact on quality of life, and health care utilization, over the next 50 years?
2) What kind of primary prevention programs in OA would be most effective and cost-effective?
3) What is the impact on population health of different patterns of drug use in patients with OA?
4) How is the timing of surgery for OA, selection of patients and prioritization schemes related to health outcomes and costs at the population level?
5) What is the risk of major comorbidities of OA and other arthropathies?


Journal Publication

  • International Journal of Rheumatology. Volume 2016 (2016), Article ID 6475318, 7 pages; http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2016/6475318
  • Arthritis Care Res (Hoboken). 2016 May 9. doi: 10.1002/acr.22933. [Epub ahead of print]
  • Kopec JA, Sayre EC, Fines P, Flanagan WM, Nadeau C, Okhmatovskaia A, Wolfson MC; Simulation Technology for Applied Research Team. Effects of reductions in body mass index on future osteoarthritis burden in Canada: A population-based microsimulation study. Arthritis Care Res (Hoboken).2015 Nov 25. doi: 10.1002/acr.22796. [Epub ahead of print]
  • Sharif B, Kopec J, Bansback N, Rahman MM, Flanagan WM, Wong H, Fines P, Anis A. Projecting the direct cost burden of osteoarthritis in Canada using a microsimulation model. Osteoarthritis Cartilage. 2015 Oct;23(10):1654-63.
  • Rahman MM, Cibere J, Goldsmith CH, Anis AH, Kopec JA. Osteoarthritis incidence and trends in administrative health records from British Columbia, Canada. J Rheumatol. 2014 Jun;41(6):1147-54.    
  • Rahman MM, Cibere J, Anis AH, Goldsmith CH, Kopec JA. Risk of Type 2 Diabetes among Osteoarthritis Patients in a Prospective Longitudinal Study. International Journal of Rheumatology, vol. 2014, Article ID 620920
  • Rahman MM, Kopec JA, Anis AH, Cibere J, Goldsmith CH. The risk of cardiovascular disease in patients with osteoarthritis: A prospective longitudinal study. Arthritis Care Res (Hoboken) 2013 Dec;65(12):1951-8   
  • Rahman MM, Kopec JA, Cibere J, Goldsmith CH, Anis AH. The relationship between osteoarthritis and cardiovascular disease in a population health survey: a cross-sectional study. BMJ Open. 2013 May 14;3(5).
  • Sharif, B., Kopec, J. A., Wong, H., Finès, P., Sayre, E. C., Liu, R. R., & Wolfson, M. C. (2012). Uncertainty analysis in population-based disease microsimulation models. Epidemiology Research International, 2012, 1-14. doi: 10.1155/2012/610405 Epidemiology Research International
  • Kopec, J.A., Edwards, K., Manuel, D.G., & Rutter, C.M. (2012). Advances in microsimulation modeling of population health determinants, diseases, and outcomes. Epidemiology Research International, 2012 doi: 10.1155/2012/584739 Epidemiology Research International
  • Rahman MM, Kopec JA, Sayre EC, Greidanus NV, Aghajanian J, Anis AH, Cibere J, Jordan JM, Badley EM Effect of Sociodemographic Factors on Surgical Consultations and Hip or Knee Replacements Among Patients with Osteoarthritis in British Columbia, Canada. J Rheumatol. 2011, Mar;38(3):503-9.
  • Kopec JA, Finès P, Manuel DG, Buckeridge DL, Flanagan WM, Oderkirk J, Abrahamowicz M, Harper S, Sharif B, Okhmatovskaia A, Sayre EC, Rahman MM, Wolfson MC. Validation of population-based disease simulation models: A review of concepts and methods.  BMC Public Health 2010 Nov 18;10:710.
  • De Vera MA, Rahman MM, Bhole V, Kopec JA, Choi HK.(2010) "Independent impact of gout on the risk of acute myocardial infarction among elderly women: a population-based study" Annals of the rheumatic diseases 69(6):1162-4. Epub 2010/02/04
  • Sayre EC, Li LC, Kopec JA, Esdaile JM, Bar S, Cibere J. The effect of disease site (knee, hip, hand, foot, lower back or neck) on employment reduction due to osteoarthritis. PLoS One. 2010;5(5):e10470
  • Kopec, J. A., Sayre, E. C., Flanagan, W. M., Fines, P., Cibere, J., Rahman, M. M.,Badley, E. M. (2010). Development of a population-based microsimulation model of osteoarthritis in Canada. [Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't]. Osteoarthritis Cartilage, 18(3), 303-311. doi: 10.1016/j.joca.2009.10.010 Osteoarthritis and Cartilage
  • Kopec JA, Sayre EC, Flanagan WM, Fines P, Cibere J, Rahman MM, et al. (2010) "Development of a population-based microsimulation model of osteoarthritis in Canada" Osteoarthritis and cartilage / OARS, Osteoarthritis Research Society 18(3):303-11. Epub 2009/11/03
  • Kopec J A, Sayre E, Berthelot JM, Flanagan W, Fines P, Le Petit C, Cibere J, Rahman M, Lima VD, Aghajanian J, Bansback NJ, Anis AH, Jordan JM, Sobolev B, Greidanus NV, Garbuz DS, Hawker GA, Badely EM (2006) "Development of a computer simulation model of osteoarthritis in Canada" Osteoarthritis Cartilage, 14(Supp B)
  • De Vera M, Rahman MM, Rankin J, Kopec J, Gao X, Choi H (2008) "Gout and the risk of Parkinson's disease: a cohort study. Arthritis and rheumatism" 59(11):1549-54. Epub 2008/11/01.>
  • Kopec JA, Rahman MM, Aghajanian J, Sayre EC, Cibere J, Anis AH, Badley EM. Trends in physician-diagnosed osteoarthritis incidence in an administrative database in British Columbia, Canada, 1996/7 – 2003/4. Arthritis Rheum 2008 Jun 24;59(7):929-934.
  • Kopec JA, Rahman MM, Berthelot J-M, Le Petit C, Aghajanian J, Sayre EC, Cibere J, Anis AH, Badley EM. Descriptive Epidemiology of Osteoarthritis in British Columbia, Canada. J Rheumatol 2007;34(2):386-93.
  • Kopec JA, Rahman MM, Berthelot JM, Le Petit C, Aghajanian J, Sayre EC, et al. (2006) "Descriptive epidemiology of osteoarthritis in British Columbia, Canada" The Journal of rheumatology 34(2):386-93. Epub 2006/12/22

Academic thesis or dissertation

  • Sharif, B, Direct cost of osteoarthritis in Canada: An application of microsimulation modeling with uncertainty analysis, PhD dissertation, the University of British Columbia. April 2014.
  • Rahman MM, The epidemiology of osteoarthritis and its association with cardiovascular disease and diabetes, PhD dissertation, the University of British Columbia. April 2014.

Presentation of research material (poster/seminar/lecture etc.)

  • Sayre EC, Jordan JM, Cibere J, Murphy L, Myers EL, Schwartz TA, Helmick CG, Rahman MM, Aghajanian J, Kang W, Badley EM, Kopec JA. Modeling the multivariate distribution of radiographic osteoarthritis in knees and hips: a population-based study in rural North Carolina. Arthritis Care Res (Abstract). Poster presented at the 2008 American College of Rheumatology ACR/AHRP Annual Scientific Meeting, San Francisco, CA, USA, October 24-29, 2008.
  • Rahman MM, Kopec JA, Finès P, Flanagan W, Sayre EC, Garbuz DS, Greidanus NV, Aghajanian J, Anis AH, Cibere J, Jordan JM, Badley EM.  Effect of Socio-demographic Factors on Time to Surgical Consultation and Hip/ Knee Replacement Surgery for Osteoarthritis Patients in British Columbia, Canada. Arthritis Rheum 2007;56:9(Suppl):S350. Presented as a poster presentation for the ACR/ARHP Annual Scientific Meeting, November 6-11, 2007, Boston, Massachusetts, USA.

Conference abstract/presentation

  • Presented at the 2016 Annual European Congress of Rheumatology (EULAR), London, June 8-11, 2016
  • Bancej C, et al. Development of population-based microsimulation models to estimate health and economic impacts of neurological conditions on individuals and caregivers in Canada: POHEM-Neurological – IMA conference, December 2013.
  • Kopec J, et al. Effect of a high-risk strategy for BMI reduction on osteoarthritis prevalence in Canada: A microsimulation study – IMA conference, December 2013
  • Tuna M, et al. Long term estimates of Incident Diabetes in Canada – IMA conference, December 2013.
  • Hennessy D, et al. Projecting cardiovascular disease incidence in Canada: hitting a moving target – IMA conference, December 2013
  • Heath A, et al. Microsimulation models as a tool for public health policy: the success stories. IMA conference, December 2013
  • Manuel D, et al. Developing population health models using a stepped approach of increasingly complex model specification: the example of the Population Health Model for cardiovascular disease (POHEM:CVD) – IMA conference, December 2013
  • Sharif B., et al. Uncertainty Analysis in Population-Based Disease Simulation Models: An Approach Based on Analysis of Variance – IMA Conference, December 2013.
  • Kopec JA, Sayre E, Rahman M, Kang W, Fines P,  Flanagan W, Badley, E. (2011) "A simulation model of medication use and impact among persons with osteoarthritis in Canada" Presented at the Second Mexican-Canadian Congress of Rheumatology, Cancun, Mexico
  • Kopec JA, Finès P, Flanagan WM, Sayre EC, Rahman M, Bansback N, Cibere J, Anis H, Jordan JM, Badley EM. Projecting the burden of osteoarthritis in Canada using microsimulation. Presented at the Annual Meeting of the European League Against Rheumatism (EULAR) in Copenhagen, June 10-13, 2009
  • Finès P, Kopec JA, Flanagan WM, Sayre EC, & Rahman M (2009) "Microsimulation of osteoarthritis in Canada – Case study of a chronic disease in Canada" Presented at the Meeting of the International Microsimulation Association, Ottawa, Canada
  • Finès, P, Kopec, JA, EC, EC Sayre, Rahman, M, & Flanagan, WM (2009) "Implementing drugs in a microsimulation model for patients with osteoarthritis" Abstract presented at the Meeting of the Canadian Agency for Drugs and Technologies in Health (CADTH), Ottawa, Canada
  • De Vera MA, Rahman MM, Bhole V, Kopec JA, Choi HK (2009) "Gout and the risk of acute myocardial infarction among elderly women" Value in Health 12(3)A63-A64
  • Finès P, Kopec JA, Flanagan WM, Sayre EC, Rahman MM, Cibere J, Kang W, Aghajanian J, Badley EM, Bansback N, Anis AH. Building a microsimulation model to estimate health-related quality of life over the course of osteoarthritis. Qual Life Res 2008 Supplement (abstract). Poster presented at the 15th Annual Scientific Meeting of the International Society for Quality of Life Research, Montevideo, Uruguay, October 22-25, 2008.
  • Rahman MM, Aghanjanian J. Kopec JA, Cibere J. Validation of osteoarthritis diagnosis in administrative data using a clinically and radiologically defined population-based cohort of osteoarthritis. Osteoarthritis Cartilage 2008; 16 (Suppl. 4):S150 (Abstract 342). Presented at the 2008 World Congress on Osteoarthritis (OARSI), Rome, Italy, September 18-21, 2008.
  • Flanagan WM, Kopec JA, Finès P, Rahm

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