Prediction Core: Socio-economic Risk Indicators
This study has two main objectives, forming two components of the study.
The first objective is to develop a new method to compare and measure the similarity between the vulnerability profiles of communities as measured by a series of vulnerability indicators, to allow communities to identify other similarly vulnerable communities to share knowledge and resources related to hazard risk reduction. This component of the study - component A - will aim to address the following research questions:
Research question #1:
What indicators can be used to characterize the vulnerability of coastal communities to marine hazards, including coastal flooding, storms, and marine oil spills?
Research question #2:
What method can be developed to quantify the similarity between marine hazard vulnerability profiles of different communities?
Research question #3:
How similar are the marine hazard vulnerability profiles of the 50 most populous municipalities in the region of Strait of Georgia, British Columbia? Specifically, how similar are the vulnerability of their a) economic, b) social, c) built environment, d) natural environment and e) institutional capitals to marine hazards?
Results will include vulnerability indicators and profiles for the 50 communities, along with maps and tables of analytical results (quantified similarity between different communities in terms of their vulnerability indicators). These will be implemented in an online platform intended for use by planners, such as emergency planners in the case communities. The platform will be GIS-based and password-protected. The platform can help them to better understand their communities vulnerability, to identify other communities that share key vulnerability attributes, and to share information and resources for risk reduction planning.
The second objective component B - is to develop a new method to identify prevalent coastal flooding impact patterns as measured by a series of impact indicators at the timeframe of 2100. The premise of this is to help a community plan and design for sea-level rise adaptation strategies that are robust by accounting for impacts that are prevalent under a wide range of possible long-term futures. This new method will be applied for the City of Vancouver as case study to address the following research questions:
Research question #4:
How does this new method of identifying prevalent impact pattern overcome the limitations of the existing methods?
Research question #5:
Does the prevalent impact patterns identified by this new method influence the City of Vancouvers SLR adaptation decision in terms of the:
-Stakeholders understanding of the problem? If so, how?
-SLR adaptation decision-making process? If so, how?